A 2024 study from the Stanford Project, conducted by Azadi, Mirramazani, and Mesgaran, reveals that Iranian migration—particularly among students, scholars, and elites—has followed an upward trajectory over time, with a significant increase since the 1979 Iranian Revolution. Their analysis is based on a collection of data gathered from national governments and international organizations. Additionally, the study employs a classification algorithm to identify Iranian-origin researchers working abroad, utilizing an examination of global scientific publication records over recent decades.
The compiled data indicates that the total number of Iranian-born migrants grew from approximately 500,000 before the 1979 Revolution to 3.1 million by 2019, accounting for 1.3% and 3.8% of the country’s population, respectively, at those times. The primary destinations for Iranian migrants include the United States, Canada, Germany, and the United Kingdom. The study also estimates that nearly 700,000 Iranian-born individuals have pursued higher education in foreign universities.
The enrollment of Iranian students in international universities has followed three distinct phases:
- A sharp increase in the decade leading up to the 1979 Revolution.
- A significant decline in the two decades following the revolution.
- A renewed upward trend in recent years.
Currently, the number of Iranian-born students enrolled in foreign universities has reached an all-time high of 130,000. Over the past few decades, the proportion of graduate students compared to undergraduate students has increased, and more students are now migrating before entering university (children who immigrate with their families). Meanwhile, the desire to return to Iran has dramatically declined—from over 90% in 1979 to less than 10% today.
The study also identifies approximately 110,000 Iranian-origin researchers collaborating with universities and research institutions outside Iran. This group represents roughly one-third of Iran’s total research workforce in terms of numbers, but likely a significantly larger share in terms of scientific output and impact. As an indicator of brain drain, the number of active researchers among Iranian expatriates has increased tenfold since 2000.
The Economic and Structural Implications of Brain Drain in Iran
The ongoing brain drain, coupled with decades of economic isolation, insufficient investment, structural corruption, the closure of Iran’s demographic opportunity window, and the declining relative value of fossil fuel resources, suggests that Iran risks losing generations of economic growth.
In theory, the Iranian expatriate elite could help mitigate these challenges through virtual or physical return, direct investment, humanitarian aid, tourism, and financial remittances. However, none of these developments are likely to occur without fundamental changes in Iran’s current political landscape.
